Trump ties U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal to Israeli recognition

President Trump stated that the United States will not approve a landmark civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia unless the kingdom joins the Abraham Accords and recognizes Israel, directly tying a major strategic partnership to Middle East normalization and creating immediate uncertainty about whether Saudi Arabia has agreed to the condition.

In a post on Truth Social on July 23, Trump wrote: "The Civil Nuclear Deal (There will be no enrichment of material!) which pertains only to non-military use will be approved, but is totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords." White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump had discussed the condition with Saudi leaders "on numerous previous occasions" and stated: "He has said if they don't join the Abraham Accords, the deal is off."

It remains unclear whether the Abraham Accords condition appears in the text of the nuclear deal, which has not been publicly released, or whether Saudi Arabia formally agreed to the requirement before Trump's announcement. Saudi Arabia has not responded to Trump's remarks so far, per reporting from the time.

The U.S. Department of Energy described the agreement as including a "peaceful nuclear co-operation agreement" and a "bilateral safeguards agreement" that "together, these two agreements lay the legal foundation for a decades-long, multi-billion-dollar partnership that advances several priority economic and strategic objectives, including nuclear nonproliferation." The agreement will be sent to the U.S. Congress for review. The International Atomic Energy Agency stated it was aware of U.S. and Saudi plans for a "bilateral civil nuclear cooperation agreement and the plan to ask the IAEA to implement verification measures in relation to this."

During Trump's first term, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed the Abraham Accords, achieving the first normalization of relations between Israel and Arab nations in decades, according to reporting. Sudan, Morocco, and Kazakhstan have since also signed the accords. Saudi Arabia has previously said it will not join the Abraham Accords without the establishment of a Palestinian state. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said Saudi Arabia joining the accords "would be an historic leap forward for peace in the Middle East," though the statement did not mention the nuclear deal. Israeli Economy Minister Nir Barkat said his country "can manage it" if Saudi Arabia had nuclear power for peaceful means.

Trump's statement appears to deny that the deal would allow Saudi uranium enrichment. However, the condition faces scrutiny from analysts. Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East programme at the Defense Priorities think tank, stated it would be "quite shocking" if the U.S. were to allow Saudi Arabia uranium enrichment facilities, noting: "The US has never done that before. We have never helped another country enrich on their own soil." Kelanic said uranium enrichment is concerning because "if you can produce your own nuclear fuel, you become a much bigger risk" for building nuclear weapons.

Former Israeli defence minister Avigdor Lieberman voiced a related concern: "Every military nuclear program begins with a civilian one." Israel is widely believed to have nuclear weapons, but it neither confirms nor denies this.

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told CBS News in 2018 that his nation was not planning to acquire a nuclear weapon, but stated: "without a doubt if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible."