The Afternoon Brief: Middle East, Europe, and trade war intensify as courts hold lines

Wednesday brought three parallel escalations that reshaped markets and alliances. Iran fired 20 ballistic missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan on September 9; Jordanian forces reported intercepting 18, with two falling in open areas and no casualties reported. The strike followed U.S. destruction of Iranian tankers in the Gulf of Oman. Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel on September 9 for the first time in months, with The Guardian reporting the price at roughly $100.6 a barrel, up 2.7 percent on the day.

In Europe, Hungary's Foreign Minister Anita Orbán ordered 10 Russian diplomats to leave Budapest on September 8, citing unacceptable activities incompatible with diplomatic status. The expulsion marks a sharp reversal from Hungary's previous stance as Russia's closest ally in the European Union under Viktor Orbán. Prime Minister Péter Magyar's government, elected in April 2026, has declared Russia a threat to Hungarian security and the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia.

On trade, President Trump directed the General Services Administration and U.S. trade representative on September 8 to remove Canadian products from federal contracting schedules worth more than $50 billion annually, conditioning removal on Canada providing what Trump called full and fair reciprocity. The order directly threatens Bombardier, Canada's aerospace manufacturer with more than 1,400 U.S. workers in Wichita, Kansas, whose supply chain spans about 2,800 U.S. companies across 47 states. Canada retaliated Tuesday with tariffs on about $20 billion worth of U.S. goods and announced it will purchase early-warning radar planes from Sweden's Saab instead of U.S.-made alternatives from Boeing and L3Harris.

Domestically, courts moved to constrain executive power. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit upheld on September 9 an injunction blocking the IRS from sharing taxpayer information with Immigration and Customs Enforcement, ruling the Trump administration violated tax-confidentiality law. The court found the IRS had unlawfully disclosed information in response to ICE's request for addresses of 1.28 million suspected undocumented immigrants without meeting legal safeguards. Though 47,289 records had already been shared before the block took effect, the ruling bars future transfers.

In redistricting, Justice Brett Kavanaugh rejected on September 8 an emergency appeal from Missouri Republicans seeking to implement a new congressional map for the 2026 midterms. The decision preserved a Missouri Supreme Court ruling that upheld a voter referendum blocking the map, leaving the 2022 configuration with six Republican and two Democratic seats in place. Separately, Missouri's Supreme Court issued an order on September 9 asking Secretary of State Denny Hoskins to explain why he should not be held in contempt for violating the redistricting order, with a hearing scheduled for September 10. Hoskins is caught between conflicting federal and state judicial directives.

In New Hampshire, Rep. Chris Pappas won the Democratic primary and former U.S. Senator John E. Sununu won the Republican primary on September 9, setting up a Senate race for November. Trump endorsed Sununu earlier in 2026 despite Sununu's 2024 op-ed calling Trump a loser and his support for Nikki Haley in the presidential primary. Pappas, a four-term incumbent, is giving up his House seat to pursue the Senate. New Hampshire has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2010.