The Morning Brief: Iran escalates, oil breaches $100, courts block data sharing

The Middle East military campaign and oil markets dominated the economic and geopolitical landscape Thursday. Iran fired 20 ballistic missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan early Thursday; Jordanian forces said they intercepted 18, with two falling in open areas and no casualties. The strike marked the campaign's geographic expansion beyond the Persian Gulf, following U.S. destruction of Iranian tankers on Wednesday. Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel for the first time since July, closing Thursday around $101. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 2.4 percent to $95.25. The spike reflects supply fears: the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil flows, remains contested, with Iran insisting on control and the U.S. maintaining a naval blockade. At the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, President Trump said the war would end "very shortly after the election" in November, tying military resolution to electoral outcomes. NBC News polling shows 69 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the conflict, and Republican enthusiasm has eroded 18 percentage points since spring. Bank of America analysts assessed a durable deal unlikely before the November 3 midterms, leaving markets sensitive to further infrastructure attacks over the next eight weeks. Global energy prices spiked: UK and European gas reached their highest levels in years; U.S. diesel hit an all-time high at $5.94 a gallon; gasoline rose 7 cents to $4.22 a gallon, now more than a dollar above one year earlier.

The courts handed the Trump administration defeats on two immigration and electoral fronts. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia upheld an injunction blocking the IRS from sharing taxpayer data with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The three-judge panel found the agency violated tax-confidentiality law enacted after Watergate by allowing ICE to bulk-request addresses of 1.28 million suspected undocumented immigrants without meeting legal safeguards. The ruling stops new data sharing prospectively, but 47,289 records had already been shared before the lower-court block took effect and remain in ICE custody. The next move lies with the Trump administration: whether to seek further appeal or pursue alternative enforcement methods. In Missouri, the state's Supreme Court opened a contempt investigation into Secretary of State Denny Hoskins for defying a state court ruling that barred use of a newly drawn GOP congressional map. Hoskins is caught between a state court order and a simultaneous federal judge directive requiring the map's use. He is scheduled for a contempt hearing on September 10 to explain why he should not be held in contempt.

At the same convention, Trump announced a $5,000 "dividend" to every American adult if Republicans retain both chambers in November, with no details on funding or implementation. Vice President JD Vance suggested tariff revenue could fund it. Legal experts disagreed on whether the pledge would violate federal prohibitions on payments intended to influence voting. Democrats labeled it an empty promise. Trump also promised $45,000 cash gifts to three White House aides (Natalie Harp, Margo Martin, and Chamberlain Harris) and $20,000 to a fourth (Walt Nauta), disclosed in their annual financial disclosures as "holiday gifts." A White House official said the gifts were permissible under ethical standards and unrelated to the recipients' official duties, but the characterization may face scrutiny if audits examine timing or patterns relative to responsibilities.

The Trump administration moved forward on other fronts. The Census Bureau proposed excluding undocumented immigrants and some visa holders from the 2030 census count used for congressional apportionment, and eliminating census questions on race, ethnicity, and sexual orientation. The proposal resurrected an effort from Trump's first term and faces constitutional obstacles: the Constitution requires apportionment count include "the whole number of persons" in each state. Congress must approve any final census questions by April 1, 2027. Kelly Rogers, who oversees the Office of Special Education and Rehabilitative Services at the Education Department, announced her resignation effective September 11, less than a day before her office staff were scheduled to transfer to the Department of Health and Human Services as part of the administration's effort to dismantle the Education Department. Disability rights advocates have condemned the shift.

In New Hampshire, Rep. Chris Pappas won the Democratic primary and former Sen. John E. Sununu won the Republican primary on September 9, setting up a November Senate race for the seat vacated by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. New Hampshire has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2010. Democrats, holding 47 Senate seats, need a net gain of four seats to retake the Senate, and this race carries national significance. Sununu, 61, defeated seven other Republicans including Scott Brown, and has distanced himself from Trump on tariffs and the Iran war. Trump endorsed him despite Sununu's 2024 op-ed calling Trump a "loser."

Democratic Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania appeared in a pre-recorded video at the GOP convention endorsing Republican colleague Dave McCormick and pledging to work with him and Trump on steel industry issues. Fetterman stated he remains a Democrat and said he would be the 51st vote if the Senate flips, but polling shows his favorability among Pennsylvania Democrats has collapsed to 22 percent, while Republicans view him more favorably than McCormick himself. The Wall Street Journal reported Fetterman shows little interest in Senate work and instead focuses on conservative media and Israel advocacy.

Overseas, a fire broke out aboard the M/V June Aster ferry off Palawan, Philippines on Wednesday evening, killing at least five and leaving 87 missing from a manifest of 134. The coastguard rescued 42 people as of Thursday morning and said the fire started in the cargo hold. The Tate brothers, dual UK-US nationals arrested in July, were denied bail Thursday by U.S. Magistrate Judge Lauren F. Louis and ordered to remain in detention while fighting extradition to the UK on 59 criminal charges including rape and human trafficking. The UK has until September 16 to file formal extradition documents. Apple announced the iPhone Duo, a foldable device priced at $1,999, marking the company's entry into a market long led by Samsung and the largest design change to the iPhone since its 2007 introduction. Preorders begin October 16, with retail availability October 23.