South Carolina Republicans choose between Graham and Norman in Senate runoff

South Carolina Republican voters will choose Tuesday between Darline Graham, appointed to finish the late Sen. Lindsey Graham's term, and Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina's Fifth District in a special primary runoff. The winner will face Democrat Annie Andrews in November in a solidly Republican state.

Graham, who has no prior elected experience, entered the race on the strength of her family name and an appointment to the seat. Norman, who has served in Congress since 2017 and is a member of the House Freedom Caucus, came in third in the June primary before advancing to the runoff. The race narrowed from 10 candidates two weeks prior to the runoff.

The central tension in the race crystallized during a one-on-one debate last Tuesday. When asked if Taiwan and the South China Sea represent national security issues, Graham answered: "I'm not that informed on national security. But I do support the military. I'm not a polished politician up here. National security is not my thing, not my area of expertise, but I do support the military." According to ABC News, she later told Fox News she "tripped up on one question" about the debate answer.

President Trump held a rally for Graham in Myrtle Beach on Friday, the last day of early in-person voting. Trump, per PBS reporting, described Graham as "a terrific woman" and called her national security answer "a very honest answer." Graham told the crowd: "Now, the critics say I shouldn't run for the Senate. They say I'm not a politician. You know what I say? Guilty as charged." She added, according to ABC News: "President Trump had never served in an elected office before, and I think he's done a damn good job." Trump stated Graham "only knows how to put America first."

Opponents have framed her inexperience as a liability on core Senate duties. Former Gov. Nikki Haley wrote on X, per ABC News: "Lindsey Graham was well informed on the United States' national security. Darline Graham admits she's not. This is not something you inherit. And it's critical in the U.S. Senate." Norman called the national security answer "surprising" and stated, according to ABC News: "There's no more important issue than national security. There's no time for training on the job."

Norman has cast himself as the alternative to an anointed candidate. In a campaign ad cited by ABC News, he said: "The establishment has already picked their candidate. Same old playbook, same old insiders. I'm not their choice. And this election is not for sale." He has also questioned, per ABC News reporting, why Trump would engage in a South Carolina race, a reliably Republican seat, instead of focusing on contests where the GOP faces an uphill battle against Democrats.

Graham has reframed the debate criticism by pivoting to economic anxiety. At an event, she asked the crowd, "Are y'all concerned about Taiwan?" and answered her own question: "You know what they said? No, they're concerned about the price of groceries, the price of gas, rising healthcare costs," according to ABC News. She has also argued that political newcomers can succeed in office, citing Trump's path to the presidency. "Everybody has a first day on the job," she told voters, per ABC News. "President Trump, was he a politician when he was first elected? Has he done a good job? Yes, he has."

Political scientist David Woodard, who managed some of Lindsey Graham's early congressional campaigns, expects relatively low turnout, with voters likely among the most engaged and opinionated Republicans. According to ABC News, Woodard noted that while some voters initially had sympathy for Darline serving out her brother's term, some now "think that Ralph Norman has credibility on issues that Darline lacks."

The Bottom Line: The runoff result will test whether Trump's high-profile endorsement moves primary voters in a solidly Republican state, and whether inexperience in national security matters proves decisive or secondary to anti-establishment sentiment. Whoever wins advances to face Andrews in a general election the GOP is heavily favored to win.