The Evening Brief: Germany votes on far-right; Ukraine talks underway; economic crosswinds mount

Germany holds its Saxony-Anhalt state election on Sunday with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) polling at 41 percent, well ahead of the Christian Democratic Union at 23 percent. If the AfD wins, it becomes the first far-right party to lead a German state government since World War II. The party's campaign has centered on a "deportation and remigration offensive" built around a plan presented at a 2023 meeting of European far-right figures in Potsdam. The AfD's candidate Ulrich Siegmund, 35, has amassed a social media following nearly as large as the eligible voting population of the state, though his polished image contrasts with associates including former officials from a banned neo-Nazi youth organization and with the party's historical revisionism on German history. All major German parties have ruled out coalition with the AfD, following the pattern in Thuringia's 2024 election where the party won the most seats but other parties united to exclude it from power. Scholar Marcel Lewandowsky argues the AfD's appeal rests on voter belief that democracy is not functioning, a pitch other parties struggle to counter without appearing defensive about the system itself.

Meanwhile, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Moscow on Saturday carrying what Trump described as a fresh proposal to end the Ukraine conflict. They are scheduled to meet Putin on Saturday and Sunday before traveling to Kyiv to meet Zelenskyy. Russia announced a three-day halt to strikes on Kyiv, and Ukraine ordered its forces to cease fire for the same period, though Russian attacks continued overnight despite the pause. At least five people were killed in Dnipropetrovsk region on Saturday as Russia struck civilian targets and Zelenskyy said Russian drones targeted Kyiv's airports, which he characterized as retaliation for the prospect of U.S. aircraft landing there. The ceasefire's durability through Sunday remains unclear, as does the concrete content of Trump's proposal, which remains undisclosed.

Economically, multiple pressures are converging. Brent crude reached $95 per barrel, up from roughly $70 before the war began. Regional variation is sharp: Washington state diesel averaged $6.81 per gallon. The August jobs report showed 162,000 new positions, more than double economist expectations, but wage growth remains at 3.1 percent annually, trailing July's 3.4 percent inflation rate. The September 11 inflation report will provide data the Fed will use to decide its course.

On other fronts, the Trump administration announced five voter fraud prosecutions on Friday in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Wisconsin, involving alleged noncitizen voting and aiding and abetting, as part of its election-integrity enforcement heading into November's midterms. The Pentagon subjected approximately 50 members of the Joint Staff to polygraph tests last month in an inquiry into leaks of classified information about U.S. munitions stocks and Iran operations, in what legal and military experts describe as unprecedented in modern military history. The judge found the government likely did not violate the First Amendment, though two other lawsuits against the Pentagon on editorial independence remain pending. Missouri's state Supreme Court blocked a Republican-drawn congressional map on Thursday, ruling that a citizen referendum petition with over 300,000 signatures was valid, returning the state to its post-2020 district lines for November's elections. A jury in the Lindsay Clancy murder trial deadlocked 11-1 on Thursday after seven days of deliberation, forcing a mistrial declaration; prosecutors will announce by September 29 whether to retry the case. A Labor Department Inspector General report released Saturday documented allegations that former Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer drank alcohol during working hours on federal property, directed employees to perform personal tasks at her residence, and presided over a toxic work environment; Chavez-DeRemer has denied breaking any laws. U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday in retaliation for Iranian ballistic missile attacks on two U.S. Navy ships in the Persian Gulf, marking an escalation toward economic infrastructure targeting. U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee called West Bank settler violence an "act of terror" during a visit to the village of Turmus Ayya on Saturday, while Netanyahu's government characterized such violence as isolated acts by a "handful of rioters." Two workers were rescued alive from a Nepal hydropower tunnel on Friday, nine days after devastating floods; about 500 workers remain believed trapped in tunnels across multiple projects.

The Trump administration proposed on Thursday that the Treasury Department and IRS would strip tax-exempt status from private schools and colleges offering race-based aid programs, with the rule taking effect after May 2027 and potentially affecting up to 18,000 education institutions; the regulation requires a notice-and-comment period before finalization.