Germany's far-right AfD leads polls for September 6 Saxony-Anhalt election

Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is polling above 40 percent in Sunday's state election in Saxony-Anhalt, putting it on track to become the first far-right party to lead a German state government since World War II. The election in the eastern state takes place September 6, 2026.

According to Al Jazeera reporting, the CDU is polling at just above 20 percent, the Left Party at 12 percent, the Social Democrats at 7 percent, and the Greens at 5 percent. The AfD has been classified as "far-right extremist" in Saxony-Anhalt by Germany's domestic intelligence service, per Al Jazeera.

The AfD's leading candidate is Ulrich Siegmund, 35, a former marketing professional and former CDU member, according to NPR reporting. Per NPR, Siegmund has almost half as many TikTok followers as people eligible to vote in Saxony-Anhalt. Al Jazeera reports that Der Spiegel magazine dubbed Siegmund "Germany's most dangerous man." In a recent TikTok post cited by NPR, Siegmund asserts: "It is unacceptable that our doctors are leaving for Switzerland, Norway, or elsewhere because they cannot tolerate the conditions here, while we bring in doctors from India or other places to replace them."

According to Al Jazeera reporting, the AfD's election platform, titled "The Country First," calls for the abolition of the right to asylum, the confiscation of cash and assets of asylum seekers, and mass deportations. The platform states that "culturally foreign" health workers often fail to meet German medical standards and "endanger patient well-being," per NPR. Under AfD proposals cited by Al Jazeera, anyone who insults German identity or the "historical-cultural entity Germany" could face a prison sentence. The party seeks to ban the "Antifa" movement, cancel public broadcasting, and reverse the shift toward renewable energy.

The AfD was founded in 2013 as a Eurosceptic party in the aftermath of the European Union financial crisis, per Al Jazeera. The party gained ground during Angela Merkel's 2015 decision to admit about a million refugees, many of them Syrian. Last year, the AfD became the second-largest party in the Bundestag, securing 21 percent of the vote in federal elections, according to Al Jazeera. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) recently ruled out cooperation with both the Left Party and the AfD, per Al Jazeera reporting.

Social scientists cited in the sources offer competing explanations for the AfD's rise. According to a study by Professor Martin Schroder based on data from 2014 to 2024, cited by Al Jazeera, concerns about immigration explain support for the AfD nearly 10 times as much as actual or perceived economic disadvantage. Al Jazeera reporting describes eastern German states as characterized by a lack of jobs, a shortage of local doctors, the decline of public transportation, depopulated villages, and a persistent perception that the eastern states are governed by distant liberal elites in Berlin.

Some AfD voters cite economic concerns. Mario Jung, a 59-year-old banking clerk quoted in Al Jazeera, says: "I am a conservative, and the main reason for me to vote for the (far-right) AfD is the economy." Another voter quoted in NPR, Alexander Winsek, states that while he does not agree with all AfD positions (he wants to stay in NATO, keep the euro, and is not pro-Russia), Siegmund "stands out from the crowd" and is "the breath of fresh air democracy needs."

Professor Marcel Lewandowsky, cited in NPR reporting, argues that "it's wrong to assume that AfD voters want an autocratic leader," noting that polls show the greatest share of AfD voters is pro-democracy. According to NPR, Lewandowsky states that the AfD promises voters "real" democracy, a pledge other parties struggle to compete with. When other parties defend democracy against the AfD, he suggests, "they seem like the establishment that doesn't want to share their state, their government, their institutions with the silent majority which the AfD claims to represent."

Formal barriers to AfD power have begun to crumble. According to Al Jazeera reporting, at the local level, the "principle of non-cooperation," also known as the "firewall," has already been abandoned in dealing with the AfD. Professor Thomas Biebricher, quoted by Al Jazeera, states that if the AfD enters government, it would be "the first time since 1945 that a party with a far-right agenda would enter government at the state level." Biebricher also stated that AfD entry into government would "cause considerable damage to Germany's image."

Another major election is scheduled for September 20, 2026, in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the AfD is polling at about 37 percent according to Al Jazeera. In Berlin, the CDU currently leads with 21 percent, followed by the Left Party at 19 percent and the AfD at 18 percent, per Al Jazeera reporting.