Hawaii declares state of emergency as Hurricane Lowell approaches, impacts expected September 9

Hawaii Governor Josh Green declared a state of emergency on Friday, September 6, and activated the National Guard as Hurricane Lowell approached the islands, according to The Guardian and NBC News reporting. The governor also activated the state's Emergency Management Agency. First impacts from Lowell are expected by Monday evening, September 9. Lowell had maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and was located approximately 545 miles south-southwest of Lihue or about 565 miles southwest of Honolulu as of September 7, according to PBS reporting. The tropical cyclone had reached Category 5 status, defined by sustained winds of 157 mph or greater, overnight Friday before losing intensity and settling into Category 4 parameters (sustained winds of 130-156 mph) by Saturday, according to NBC News. By early Sunday morning, Lowell remained a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph while moving northwest at six miles per hour. Forecasts project Lowell will reach Hawaii as a Category 2 hurricane. Its center could pass approximately 130 miles west of Ni'ihau or 170 miles west of Kauai between Monday evening, September 9, and Tuesday morning, September 10, per The Guardian. The National Hurricane Center forecast cone has Lowell passing just west of the archipelago's major islands from south to north on Monday night. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Kauai and Ni'ihau, where wind gusts above 39 miles per hour are possible over the next 48 hours, according to The Guardian. The National Hurricane Center issued the warning for Kauai and Niihau as Lowell is forecast to pass the islands to the west late Monday and Tuesday, per PBS reporting. A hurricane warning for the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument was in effect, according to NBC News. Rainfall forecasts project 6 to 10 inches of rain, with maximum totals of 14 inches possible, per PBS reporting. More specific projections show Ni'ihau and Kaua'i could see 12 to 14 inches of rain, with downpours beginning Sunday afternoon and flash flooding and landslides possible, according to NBC News. Hawaii's Big Island is expected to see 4 to 8 inches of rain, with some areas potentially receiving as much as 12 inches, per PBS. Maui could record up to 8 inches of rain. A combination of storm surge and tides will likely cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters of up to 3 feet on Kauai, according to PBS reporting. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles, per PBS. Lowell is the third tropical system to threaten Hawaii in just over three weeks during an active hurricane season in the central Pacific, according to The Guardian. As of Saturday, September 7, Hurricanes Karina, Lowell, and Marie were all churning in the Pacific simultaneously, marking the region's first triple-hurricane stretch in a decade, per The Guardian. The National Hurricane Center was also monitoring a fourth potential system off the coast of Mexico. The Pacific averages only eight hurricanes per year according to the National Hurricane Center, making three simultaneous hurricanes highly unusual. Tropical Storm Moke struck the southern part of Hawaii's islands two weeks ago, bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds. Moke came just days after Hurricane Lala hit the region. Parts of Oahu and the Big Island were hit with intense flooding and strong winds from Tropical Storm Lala last month. Governor Josh Green said Lala alone caused at least 43 million dollars in infrastructure damage on the Big Island, along with another 4.6 million dollars in damage to homes. The state was securing its harbors, deploying emergency personnel to strategic locations, and monitoring dams for any possible breaches or overflows, according to NBC News. The Kauai Emergency Management Agency urged residents to fill gas tanks, charge devices, refill prescriptions, and have enough water and food ahead of the storm. The agency said residents should be prepared to stay home for several days. The state's Emergency Management Agency said tropical storm conditions were expected in Kauai County in the next 36 hours, while Ni'ihau, Kauai, and the surfing mecca of Oahu could see "extremely dangerous surf" on south and west-facing coastlines Monday and Tuesday, per NBC News. The National Weather Service warned: "Just because we're on the edge of the cone doesn't mean we're safe." Governor Josh Green stated: "Hurricane Lowell has made its expected northward turn and remains forecast to pass west of Kaua'i, but a slight shift east has increased the potential for tropical storm-force winds. The greatest impacts are expected Monday, particularly on Kaua'i and Ni'ihau." He added: "We are taking Hurricane Lowell extremely seriously and preparing now, before conditions deteriorate. I urge everyone, especially those in Kaua'i County, to complete their preparations, follow official alerts and stay away from floodwaters, dangerous surf and other hazardous areas." Lowell's projected offshore path is expected to keep the storm's most dangerous winds away from Hawaii's islands, but heavy rain, high surf, and dangerous coastal conditions are still expected, according to The Guardian. The rainfall could produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, per PBS reporting. Two other active systems are also affecting broader regions. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of southwest Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and Southern California for the next few days, with these swells likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Tropical Storm Karina, a former Category 4 hurricane, was located about 655 miles east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii, on Sunday. The northeast Pacific hurricane season includes 15 named storms to date according to Colorado State University, per NBC News reporting. The escalating storm activity comes as the UN warns that this year's El Niño is forecast to become the strongest on record in four decades, according to The Guardian. A UN statement released on Thursday described El Niño as being "supersized before our eyes," adding that the world is in "the danger zone of extreme weather." The latest data on the natural climate phenomenon shows a near 100 percent likelihood that this El Niño will continue through February 2027, per The Guardian. The stronger an El Niño becomes, the greater the chance it will significantly alter rainfall and temperature patterns around the world and help fuel extreme weather. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has previously warned there is a 69 percent chance that this El Niño will be the strongest in 70 years. El Niño's warm sea surface temperatures are fueling potent tropical cyclones ahead of fall, according to NBC News. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said Thursday that El Niño is "being supersized before our eyes."