The Afternoon Brief: Inflation holds steady; socialist Democrat wins Oklahoma primary

The persistent inflation reading and the Democratic primary outcome in Oklahoma form two separate stories with distinct implications. The PCE data leaves the Federal Reserve's next move uncertain; the Oklahoma result adds to democratic socialists' string of primary victories this cycle, though the general election will test whether those primary wins translate to viability in Republican strongholds.

On inflation: the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred gauge, remained flat at 3.7% annually in July, matching June and exceeding the 3.6% forecast from economists polled by FactSet. Core PCE, which strips out volatile energy and food costs, rose to 3.3%, also above the 3.2% forecast. Both measures remain substantially above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The data arrives ahead of Fed communications expected to signal the agency's rate path, including remarks from Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole on Friday. The reporting does not specify what Fed officials view as the drivers of the inflation persistence or what threshold would trigger rate cuts.

On the Democratic primary in Oklahoma: N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas, a 31-year-old democratic socialist and member of the Chickasaw Nation, won the August 25 runoff over attorney and minister Jim Priest, 70. Thomas spent $57,000 to Priest's $315,000, according to Federal Election Commission filings. She will face Republican Rep. Kevin Hern in the general election for the open seat left by former Senator Markwayne Mullin, now secretary of homeland security. Oklahoma is a solidly Republican state that President Donald Trump won by 34 points in 2024. Thomas's primary victory continues a pattern of democratic socialist candidates winning high-profile Democratic primaries in recent weeks, including in Florida's Senate race and a key House battleground in Michigan. On policy, Thomas supports Medicare for All, universal childcare and parental leave, and abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement, though as a military spouse she does not support defunding the Defense Department. When asked whether she considered herself a capitalist or socialist, Thomas said capitalism is destroying the country but later described it as inevitable, stating she supports people owning businesses and property.

Other developments: The FDA approved daraxonrasib (Rasonque) on Wednesday, the first drug targeting KRAS mutations in advanced pancreatic cancer. In a 500-patient late-stage trial, median survival reached 13.2 months compared to 6.6 to 6.7 months on chemotherapy. The drug targets mutations present in over 90 percent of pancreatic tumors and is the first in its class. A Massachusetts jury entered deliberations Thursday in the trial of Lindsay Clancy, a 36-year-old former nurse charged with three counts of first-degree murder in the January 2023 deaths of her three children. The jury may consider first-degree murder, second-degree murder, involuntary manslaughter, or not guilty by reason of insanity; the defense argues postpartum psychosis prevented Clancy from knowing right from wrong, while prosecutors contend she retained that capacity. A military judge set June 5, 2028, as the trial date for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the alleged architect of the September 11 attacks, rejecting prosecutors' proposed January 2027 start date. KKR & Co. agreed to pay a $250 million civil penalty to the Justice Department for repeatedly violating federal premerger antitrust review requirements on at least 16 transactions between 2021 and 2022; the penalty is the largest civil fine ever assessed under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act.

On national security matters: CIA Director John Ratcliffe made an unannounced trip to Moscow on Tuesday to warn Russia against attacking NATO member states, according to reporting by the Wall Street Journal and CBS News. Ratcliffe flew from Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland on a government transport plane. The trip took place amid U.S. intelligence assessments that Moscow could seek to test the NATO alliance. President Trump later described the trip as "semi-routine" and denied it was motivated by concerns about Russian plans to attack NATO or by negotiations over Iran sanctions. The reporting does not clarify what specific warning Ratcliffe conveyed or how Moscow responded. Three non-law enforcement personnel in the Secret Service's communications office, including communications chief Anthony Guglielmi, were placed on administrative leave on Tuesday pending an investigation by the Office of Professional Responsibility into alleged misconduct. The agency has not disclosed the nature of the alleged misconduct.